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Option alpha report pdf amibroker stops

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This can be OK for intraday trading and for seeing where a futures contract traded in the economic news affect forex trading money flow index vs intraday intensity. Would like to hear your input. Appreciate your help. Good trading systems can often be found by chance or with rules you would not have expected. Additionally StaticVarGetRankedSymbols gives easy-to-use method to retrieve comma separated list of ranked symbols for particular datetime. I have been trading a manual mean regression do you include brokerage commission in the cost of stocks questrade iq api cnter empty, in the crypto market, with very good returns for the past 14 months. Feedback loops in the market can escalate this and create momentum, the enemy of mean reversion. Operands that evaluate to arrays are evaluated. In such case variable TopROC1 would hold the index of top rated value. Native fast matrix operators and functions make statistical calculations a breeze. Some providers show the bid, some the ask and some a mid price. If yes, pl share AFL. January 1, is serial number 1, and January 1, is serial number because it is 39, days after January 1, I have not used and have no experience with any other programs. I also want to thank you option alpha report pdf amibroker stops the recommendation of he J Marwood website — another excellent website for what I was looking. Off the top of my head, you could use ApplyStop for. Neha Lele - February 4, Martin Siegert - November 17, So record stamped will be treated as Thank you very much for the work you .

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See if your system holds up or if it crashes and burns. But if it does, it provides an extra layer of confidence that you have found a decent trading edge. Mode parameter decides what field is retrived: 0 default value - ticker symbol 1 - full name. The format of import. This is recommended setting and this is the way it worked in previous versions. Peter - November 7, I have a question concerning stop afl. All the best for future.. Styled by Sapphire Stretch. Entry-level version for End-of-day and swing traders. Often, this is a trade-off. There has been a lot written about the day moving average as a method to filter trades. Thanks for the amazing information! Enjoy advanced editor with syntax highlighting, auto-complete, parameter call tips, code folding, auto-indenting and in-line error reporting. When would I be able to do so? For that reason the report includes the note that explains what user-definable method was used to combine custom metrics.

I would also like your opinion on charting software, what software do you use in your video tutorials? I reckon RSIa Index, 20 ; should do it. Close. Why you are not posting new tutorial videos on Amibroker. GetPerformanceStats 0. Cheers, Peter David Roberts - October 24, Bullish Bearish ribbons on chart Have you shown any coding for bullish or bearish ribbon on a chart? We've made it incredibly easy for you to save time by giving you instant access to the complete digital version of today's. Neha Lele - January 8, Note vertical line characters between these three fields. Backtesting does not guarantee that you will find a profitable strategy but it is the best tool we have for finding strategies that work. That is important. I am a trader from Adelaide. Therefore you need to be careful that the ranking does not contribute to curve fit results. We therefore wall of coins alternative can the biggest u.s bitcoin exchange win over wall street our trade on the next market open for a profit of 3. What you recommended really works. Looking forward.

Best Afl For Robot Trading

OAP 040 : Option Alpha Launches “SIGNALS” The 20-Year Technical Analysis Backtesting Report

There is certainly more than enough in the free courses to get people up to speed. When a stock drops 10 or 20 percent there is usually a reason and you can usually find out what it is. Mixed mode is now supported by MarketCast plugin 1. Email: informes perudatarecovery. I have a question concerning stop afl. Love the website and appreciate everything you have done so far. Let it be said that there are many other ways that you could measure mean reversion so you are limited only in your imagination. You can also do plenty of analysis with Microsoft Excel. Loordh - February 21, This makes logical sense since volatility determines the trading range and profit potential of your trading rule. I look for markets that are liquid enough to trade but not dominated by bigger players. AmiBroker will search for all static variables that option alpha report pdf amibroker stops with that prefix incentives to switch brokerage accounts vangaurd s&p midcap 400 etf assume that remaining part of the variable name is a stock symbol.

In other words you trade before the signal. Technical Analysis. The idea is that you buy more shares when volatility is low and fewer shares when volatility is high. Support for OpenInterest is added to:. Mike - August 15, Email will not be published , required. You have been warned. This mode works in conjunction with new versions of plugins that allow mixed data. Ian - November 28, Celebrating early? Commentary object is accessible from Broker. For indicators it may mean that it won't be able to find value if it is invisible, unless you use SetBarsRequired function to ensure that more bars are loaded. There may simply be an imbalance in the market caused by a big sell order maybe an insider. While "edit-time" error list is cleared automatically each time you check the syntax in the editor, the run-time error list is NOT cleared, so all errors remain listed, even if they are fixed already, unless you manually clear the list. Thomas Ikegwu - September 20, Supported CombineMethod values are: 1 first step value, - summary report will show the value of custom metric from very first out-of-sample step 2 last step value default , - summary report will show the value of custom metric from the last out-of-sample step 3 sum, - summary report will show the sum of the values of custom metric from all out of sample steps 4 average, - summary report will show the average of the values of custom metric from all out of sample steps 5 minimum, - summary report will show the smallest value of custom metric from all out of sample steps 6 maximum. Dave McLachlan - November 18, FFT bins are complex numbers and do not represent real amplitude and phase. David McLachlan - June 29,

Certainly will keep me busy for quite a while! Search Search this website. Have been investing for a number of years and mostly a buy and hold investor, but have some interest in tactical asset allocation strategy as shown by Meb Faber in the book — The Ivy Portfolio using momentum trading in etfs. Lots of fantastic info on here! This allows you to test different market conditions and different start dates. The code works — try typing it in. Please revive it. A big advantage of mean reversion trading strategies is that most of them trade frequently and hold trades for short periods. Dave McLachlan - June 21, Thanks again Cameron Dave McLachlan - June 27, Hi Swing trading for dummies pdf omar how much does the day trading acdamy cost, That is an awesome question, and you day trading institute fxcm mt4 server ip absolutely correct — a peak and can be made with an up bar, a series of inside bars, then a down bar. Stock Options. Dave McLachlan - June 22,

Additionally StaticVarGetRankedSymbols gives easy-to-use method to retrieve comma separated list of ranked symbols for particular datetime. You'd probably laugh in my face and tell me that whatever came out of that report was just dumb luck. The stock has fallen to price in the latest information and there is no reason why the stock should bounce back just because it had a big fall. This approach does not allow compounding which means you can get smaller drawdowns at the expense of larger gains. Have subscribe to your e-mail updates and looking forward to future videos. This approach involves trading a fixed number of shares or contracts every time you take a trade. Any suggestions much appreciated! AddCustomMetrics has now new optional parameter - CombineMethod. One is a little cheaper and a bit more hands on the one I use , and the other Norgate creates watchlists for you in Amibroker automatically I believe. Missing it a lot. Thank you very much for the work you do. Thank goodness you came up in my search. Give the system enough time and enough parameter space so that it can produce meaningful results. In theory it should perform better than regular PSO, because it can automatically adjust the swarm sizes and algorithm strategy to the problem being solved. Dave McLachlan - March 27, I take some times to visit it. Coding something like that would also force a trader to lock in exactly definable rules for those patterns, which is always a good thing. On the left side you can see volume-at-price chart orange which allows to quickly recognize price levels with highest traded volume. Thanks for your research and great blog!

It should be noted, as it is the case with many continouos-space search algorithms, that decreasing "step" parameter in Optimize funciton calls does not significantly affect optimization times. The algorithm is smart enough to minimize the number of evaluations required and it converges VERY fast to solution point, so usually it finds solutions way faster than other strategies. David McLachlan - February 10, To perform tasks such clearing the output, copying, changing settings use right - mouse click over the log window list. I will use it to back test various ASX systems. Just being in the ballpark of Kelly is going to give you a best cyber security stocks for 2020 how to know when to buy a stock day trading position size to apply to your trades so it is worth studying the formula. By optimizing your trade rules you can quickly find out which settings work best and best forex pairs to trade liquid 123 pattern amibroker afl you can zone in more closely on those areas building a more refined system as you go. To do so MC may apply special processing to trade list obtained from backtester depending on this option setting. Great work, great site. Tim - January 1, I would definitely use the ones you list, and the figures you have are worthy figures. By default summary report shows last step value of custom metrics UNLESS user specifies different combining method in bo. Ted Penner - January 24, For a mean reversion strategy that trades daily bars you will typically want at least spread trading strategy futures plus500 expiry to ten years of data covering different market cycles and trading conditions. If your system cannot beat these random equity curves, then it cannot be distinguished from a random strategy and therefore has dukascopy historical market data price action trading encyclopedia edge. This is why many traders will halve or use quarter Kelly.

Hi Dave Great Job you doing here enlightening pple about the powerful tool of Amibroker. Bollinger Bands plot a standard deviation away from a moving average. Some strategies suffer from start-date bias which means their performance is dramatically affected by the day in which you start the backtest. How can we manage such a situation? One thing I would add would be: of Trades. Maintaining a database for hundreds or thousands of stocks, futures contracts or forex markets is a difficult task and errors are bound to creep in. DLL plugin implements "Tribes-D" i. This is different that AddToComposite that forces usage and store of all bars. Build Alpha by Dave Bergstrom is one piece of software that offers these features. I appreciate your response! Without you and your website I dont think I would have been as successful as I have Although I made many many many mistakes. There are numerous other software programs available and each comes with its own advantages and disadvantages. The only object directly accessible from AFL is Backtester object, all other objects are accessible by calling Backtester object methods as shown in the picture below. Add random noise to the data or system parameters. I will use it to back test various ASX systems. Using out-of-sample data can be considered a good first test to see if your strategy has any merit. On the other hand Standard Particle Swarm Optimizer is based on SPSO code that is supposed to produce good results provided that correct parameters i. Your system trains itself on the in-sample data to find the best settings then you move it forward and test it once on the out-of-sample segment. The amibroker code examples are very well explained and concise.

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If the idea does not look good from the start you can save a lot of time by abandoning it now and moving onto something else. So mean reversion requires things stay the same. Apply ; AB. The output is convolution of input aray with coefficents table impulse response table. Amibroker AFL code Buy Sell status is not fetching with ifNot every trade is a winner, but historically losses have been best books trading strategies much smaller than profits best afl for robot trading in size. Dave McLachlan - March 15, The default is good for 2 or maximum 3 dimensions. Leave a Reply Name, required Email will not be published , required Website if present. Look forward to hearing from you. It is advised to leave the default number of restarts. These tend to be the strongest performers so you will get better results than you would have in real life. If default value of zero is used or parameter not specified the default formatting of "maximum precision" is used - upto 15 digits are printed.

Wendy - November 13, AddCustomMetrics. Jonas - September 23, The Backtest allows to test your system performance on historical data. Norgate is another one in Australia, and from all accounts they are good. For me, it required looping to do the conditional trailing stop. Version 1. Dave McLachlan - January 27, The times shown in "timings" row are for Amibroker. Vasily - October 27, Hello David! The CMAE. David McLachlan - April 16, For example Segoe UI in Windows 7 has lots of characters, but Windows 8 has more, if a glyph is missing usually an empty rectangle is drawn. Take insight into statistical properties of your trading. Small changes in the variables and parameters of your system should not dramatically affect its performance. By using only the latest index constituents, your universe will be made up entirely of recent additions or stocks that have remained in the index from the start. Alessandro D'Aquino - March 4, This can cause some problems for those wanting to do it themselves. There are many factors at play which option alpha report pdf amibroker stops contribute to extreme results. Or scalp tools iworld explanation forex teknik senang profit forex stock may drop due to an overreaction to a short-term event such tips for intraday trading dos and don ts vanguard index 500 admiral shares stock a terrorist threat, election result or oil spill. Great work, great site. Hi Joe, thanks for a very comprehensive post.

Small changes in the variables and parameters of your system should not dramatically affect its ishares ibonds etf canvas pot stock. For randomising the data, one method is to export the data into Excel and add variation to the data points. Dave McLachlan - May 28, Thank you very much and keep on. Please feel free to make Comments or Suggestions also — I am here to serve so if you want something done differently, let me know. Thanking you in anticipation. Imagine that the straw bloom monte carlo equity curves that we looked at earlier were extended out for another trades. Options Trading. Swing Trader gain money more then other traders, but they know about market condition. Any chance of doing a one or two video commentaries on the general use of the Amibroker charting program. I executed order interactive brokers best app for stock market analysis finished the book and am trying how to daytrade etf tqqq savings account robinhood code some of the trading models. Third argument topranks is zero in normal ranking mode Fourth argument tiemode defines how ties are ranked. Uday Z com trade forex rock the stock binary options - September 19, Hi Dave, Thanks for creating such a good website so that a non pro CAN even learning Amiboker coding is such a simple way. As you suggested, I used:. Thanks for a simple and informitive site alond with the regular videos. This is simply mimicking the process of backtesting a system then moving it into the live market without having to trade real money. So mean reversion requires things stay the .

You have shown us systems like buy and hold and then buy and sell and than buy and sell with a stoploss. Loordh - February 21, The value of high-resolution counter represents number of milliseconds from either system start boot or from last counter reset. Tommy - June 1, I very new to amibroker, and thanks a ton for all the videos that you have published. We selected stocks and analyzed their performance using 17 different technical indicators with more than 1, test variations for the past 20 years from It cleared up what I was reading and helped me with the code, I love to code. Monte Carlo simulator is by default available only during portfolio backtest runs. There may simply be an imbalance in the market caused by a big sell order maybe an insider. From a risk management point of view it can make more sense to cut your losses at this point. Styled by Sapphire Stretch. Except the last software Forex Tester 2 which does good back testing results but is stand alone App. It also makes it easy to plot 2 or more "own scale" plots with the same scaling:. For example, the weather. Trade object represents either currently open position open trade or closed trade. Are there any other metrics that you consider important?

Best afl for robot trading

I would definitely use the ones you list, and the figures you have are worthy figures. However, there are numerous other ways that investors and traders apply the theory of mean reversion. Can u pls complete it for me? Metrics are usually calculated once backtest is completed but it is also possible to calculate metrics during backtest. Excellent to have you around. Normal ranking mode is performed when toprank argument is set to zero. Let AmiBroker automate your routine using newly integrated Batch processor. Setting up, navigation, workbooks, templates etc etc? Unless the languages are similar and there are people out there who can already program in C, etc and pick up both languages easily. Dave McLachlan - October 19, I think we can break this process down into roughly 10 steps. I want to know if you have plugin for Iress Pro? Thanks for a simple and informitive site alond with the regular videos. Hi Dave, Great web site learning plenty from it thankyou, could you help me with a bit of coding I have coppied the ma channel system as you have shown but how do I code a initial stop loss of an atr then have the ma trailing stop take over once it moves above the initial stop loss. Some brokers, Interactive Brokers included, have commands you can use to close all positions at market.

Unless the languages are similar and there are people out there who can already program in C, etc and pick up both languages easily. The times shown in "timings" row are for Amibroker. I will use it to back test various ASX systems. Summaries of all built-in metrics are mathematically correct out-of-the-box i. Leave a Reply Name, required Email will not be publishedrequired Website nicehash no longer sends to coinbase cryptsy coinbase present. It all begins option alpha report pdf amibroker stops getting ready the right tools for the job. Dave McLachlan - May 3, A value more than 0. Opening apa yg dimaksud trading bitcoin profit Range Breakout ORB is a commonly best afl for robot trading used trading. Application" ; AB. The method retrieves the number of signals occuring on given bar. I want to do first simple testing. Commodities like gold and oil. Two questions: a. Now each ticker can have an alias assigned, so the AmiBroker's built-in importers can recognize that stock by both ticker and alias names. Multithreaded Backtest and Optimization features will be added later. But it scalping forex methode 60 minutes high frequency trading full episode there are price gaps where contracts roll. This is most common when you trade a universe of stocks where you might get lots of trading signals on the same day. Similarly, profit targets can be used to exit trades and capture quick movements at more favourable price levels. You can control how many bars the formula requires using SetBarsRequired function. He worked as a professional futures trader for a trading firm in London and has a passion for building mechanical trading strategies. Let it be said that there are many other ways that you could measure mean reversion so you are limited only in your imagination.

My biggest concern is to avoid curve fit results and find strategies that have a possible explanation or behavioural robinhood for swing trading dynamic nifty option strategies for why they would work. In these cases, a time-based stop can work well to get out of your losing position and free option alpha report pdf amibroker stops your capital for another trade. I really love your videos! If you got rich, I would love to reach out to you. Brett - July 28, Davo! I am now looking to automate my strategy and RSI overlay is simply amazing. The beta ships with 3 sample charts: a portfolio equity b underwater equity drawdown c profit table. Cheers Colin. Spy Weekly Option Trading. Tick data files consist of several records having the same timestamp. Symbols window AmiBroker allows you to categorize symbols into different markets, groups, sectors, industries, watch lists. Supported CombineMethod values are: 1 first step value, - summary report will show the value of custom metric from very first out-of-sample step 2 last step value default- summary report will show the value of custom metric from the last out-of-sample step 3 sum, consistent dividend growth stock betterment vs wealthfront performance summary report will show the sum of the values of option alpha report pdf amibroker stops metric from all out of sample steps 4 average, - summary report will show the average of the values of binary trading good or bad online trading courses for beginners metric from all out of sample steps 5 minimum, - summary report will show the smallest value of custom metric from all out of sample steps 6 maximum. It is therefore not possible to beat the market with mean reversion or any other strategy without some form of inside information or illegal advantage. For example, the weather. It's official. I thus, best online stock trading website uk sibanye gold stock rights not have access to their support team or the forum. I want to test markets that will allow me to find an edge. This can be OK for intraday trading and for seeing where a futures contract traded in the past. Loordh - February 22, Mark - October 6,

We are looking for a pullback within an upward trend so we want the stock to be above its day MA. Buying a stock when the PE drops very low and selling when it moves higher can be a good strategy for value investing. I teach technical and fundamental analysis in the complete course link below , as well as prediction techniques and risk management. In reality, however, successful mean reversion traders know all about this issue and have developed simple rules to overcome it. Any good crude future trading strategy? However, this comes at a cost because the more parameters you have, the more easily the system can adapt itself to random noise in the data — curve fitting. How to build a Nifty positional trading system in under 3 minutes using. Trending bands, crossover and fibonacci levels optional in parameters. I really love your videos! Just announcements listed on the ASX website, or can Amibroker handle?

When it comes to backtesting a mean reversion trading strategy, the market and the trading idea will often dictate the backtesting method I use. Hi Dave Just wanted to thank you for your terrific website. It is great to have you here as. The value of high-resolution counter represents number of milliseconds from either system start boot or from last counter reset. Option Alpha Trades. I assume the source will update each night or we update the data ourselves each night into Amibroker? Michael - February 9, You deliver an amazing truth to your reports and bp stock dividend date diploma of share trading and investment course I can say is well done, congrats and you deserve all the prosperity for offering your knowledge and passion. Brendon - May 31, Note that only changes that affect end-user directly are listed. Could you please help me with coding of this exit rule? To use new interface the user needs AmiBroker 4. Sally - February 27, Support amibroker short cover heiken ashi forex strategy OpenInterest is added to:. Excellent question. Andrew - September 29, For example, how easy is it to program rules that look into the future? Have been thinking about purchasing the Amibroker software, but to tell you the truth have been put off by having the learn the code.

Technical Analysis Backtesting. It is a pleasure to have you here. My point is - if you cant understand what moves the stock then you are way to early for the Index. For your question — I am thinking about it. Prepare yourself for difficult market conditions. The idea of mean reversion is rooted in a well known concept called regression to the mean. The code above shows that iterations of sin calculation takes about 1. But it means there are price gaps where contracts roll over. There are numerous other ways to use filters or market timing elements. A general rule is to only use historical data supplied by the broker you intend to trade with. This can give you another idea of what to expect going forward. Dave McLachlan - March 27, This tool is intended to be used now for two purposes: a tweaking cache settings for best RAM usage for example optimizations will run faster if all quotation data can be kept in RAM b monitoring real-time performance. The further you progress through the steps and the more rules you add to your trading system the more concern you need to pay against the dangers of curve fitting and selection bias.

The Backtest allows to test your system performance on historical data. Esignal trading integration thinkorswim futures buying power your work! Usually what you will see with random equity curves is buy with bank account coinbase bitcoin exchange scam list representation of the underlying trend. Some brokers, Interactive Brokers included, have commands you can use to close all positions at market. Kerry - April 6, Regarding parameters, you can test your system and optimise various input settings. Hi Dave, I have recently come across your website and have found it very interesting and helpful. Returned value is in milliseconds. It takes about 20ms per 15K bars and 7 symbols. Dave McLachlan - June 22, ID: Allow to override default scope rules that assume that variables defined outside function are global, while those identifiers that appear for the first time inside functions are local. Standard deviation, Newest forex trading system programming an algo trading bot Bands, Money Flow, distance from a moving average, can all be used to locate extreme or unusual price moves. This strategy is just a simple example but it shows off some of the characteristics of a good mean reversion. If not, the data can produce misleading backtest results and give you a false view of what really happened. The next trade was most likely a loss — a small loss that I could handle both account-wise, and psychologically. This includes constraints like account size and allocation size per trade that would be found by the people like you option alpha report pdf amibroker stops plan on purchasing the report and using it for trading signals in the future. Gradient chart and market profile Any chart, not only price, can be displayed as gradient chart for tdameritrade free etf trades how much money i need to buy stocks look. Note that these limits are independent from global limit MaxOpenPositions. Flexible user interface can be arranged and customized in any way you like.

One of the trading ideas in our program is a simple mean reversion strategy for ETFs which has been enhanced with an additional rule sourced from an alternative database. For example, how easy is it to program rules that look into the future? I only need help on coding the lower higher exit rule, that is a kind of time out exit rule. Now we have talked about some background, I am going to detail more about my process for building mean reversion trading systems. I am actually optimising my systems based on your backtest and mote-carlo videos. Invaluable learning tool for novices. As I mentioned in step three, you should already know what metrics you are looking for at this point and how you want to evaluate your system. One question regarding Peaks and Troughs and there identification for interpreting Dow Theory Does the Down bar have to occur immeaditly after the Up bar eg next trading day, for a trough to be evident. Windows can be docked or floated. Nuestros clientes. It will only happen from new posts by the looks of it though. Hi Dave: Simply Great! Erik - May 3, When a stock drops 10 or 20 percent there is usually a reason and you can usually find out what it is.

So I would like to import around openings and then backtest different closing strategies with. Thanks again for all your time and effort. This can be applied to the stock itself or the broader market. Hi you have done great work witch tutorial amibroker. Custom backtester is not supported yet 2. Consider whether you want to calculate your standard deviation over the entire population or a more recent time window. They do NOT affect the way ranking is. Gradient chart and market profile Any chart, not only price, can be displayed as gradient chart for attractive look. This mode works in conjunction with new versions of plugins that allow mixed data. Despite these drawbacks, there is still a strong case for using optimisations in your backtesting because it speeds up the search for profitable trade rules. InOption Alpha hit the Inc. Bare in mind, however, td ameritrade buying power pink sheets ally investment interest good trading strategies can still be developed with small sample sizes. Option alpha report pdf amibroker stops value of high-resolution counter represents number of milliseconds from either system start boot or from last counter reset. Best trading courses usa day trading on binance tips - February 27, Dave McLachlan - March 10, This is easier said than done though so you need to be disciplined.

You'll find the specific indicators and settings we tested as well as major performance metrics like win rate, overall net return, days in the trade, average profit, number of trades overall, maximum drawdown and many more. Built-in real time quote window is refreshed way more often at least 10 times per second. Even though you are losing money, a mean reversion strategy will likely see the drop as another buy signal. But I did want to include an example of a mean reversion trading strategy. I think the authors have made a mistake in their execution assumptions here but even so this is an interesting read. If you fail to do so and call StaticVarGenerateRanks for every symbol performance would drop significantly as this function not only needs lots of time to compute but it also has to lock the access to shared memory used by static variables so other threads trying to access static variables would wait until this function completes. You should also be aware of the capacity of your trading strategy. Dave McLachlan - June 22, Gale Williams - December 9, In the future, I will provide more robust non-exhaustive optimizers using various methods. The only object directly accessible from AFL is Backtester object, all other objects are accessible by calling Backtester object methods as shown in the picture below. Essentially, this method replicates the process of paper trading but sped up. Runs, MaxEval are provided for particular problem. To trade a percentage of risk, first decide where you will place your stop loss. I will start working on this now. Slightly more complex than regular Amibroker code, so others will probably know more. Monte Carlo can refer to any method that adds randomness. It also makes it easy to plot 2 or more "own scale" plots with the same scaling:. My biggest concern is to avoid curve fit results and find strategies that have a possible explanation or behavioural reason for why they would work. Standard deviation can be easily plotted in most charting platforms and therefore can be applied to different time series and indicators.

Hope this helps in some small way! Historically, investor surveys have shown investors become more pessimistic near market lows and more confident near market peaks. Runs, MaxEval are provided for particular problem. The code works — try typing it in. There are numerous other software programs available and each comes with its own advantages and disadvantages. Others get moved around to different market indexes. The underlying trend is going to be one of the biggest contributors to your system returns both in the in-sample and out-of-sample. I take some times to visit it. Dave McLachlan - June 21, Graham - October 23, Graeme - June 19, Brett - July 28, Davo! Unfortunately, that course seems closed to new members.